据《The Age》报道,人民币对美元大幅贬值后投资者迅速抢购美元,导致澳元周二大幅跳水。
中国人民银行每天早上公布当天的人民币对美元中间价。三月份以来人民币对美元汇率相当稳定,但周二创纪录地将汇率降低1.9%导致投资者迅速反应寻求资金安全。Westpac高级货币策略分析师Sean Callow表示澳元是被美元暴涨附带损害了。
澳元几分钟内就从74.4美分下降到了73.5美分,其他国家货币包括韩币和新加坡元也都被打击到了。Callow先生表示,“人民币很长时间没有变动以至于大部分人都不关注它了,但今天却意外贬值引发了一场购买潮。好像周末发布的出口数据是压倒人民币长期稳定状况的最后一根稻草,因为中国当局要保持经济发展稳定。
但是但是但是!就在各家媒体都在报道澳元受重挫后,意想不到的事情发生了。下午澳元又大幅拉起,一路上涨,最高点达4.650。
作为最重要的贸易伙伴,中国如此大的利空消息,却只是让澳元“象征性”的暴跌一下,随后照涨不误。中国央行下调人民币中间价,再大的利空也没阻止澳元飙升的脚步!
前几天,澳联储公布8月份的利率维持基准利率2%不变,随后澳元开始出现反弹趋势,涨至4.58。随后到今天一路稳定反弹,在今天中国央行宣布降低人民币中间价后,大幅上涨,高点甚至超过了此前澳联储宣布利率不变的时候。
澳联储对于澳元汇率上,已经没有再次强调澳元汇率需要继续走低。经济学家表示,澳元在短期内已经进入回调阶段,回调程度和时间要将和未来上行趋势和区间有关。
长期上,澳洲统计局的市场预计显示,在2016年5月份时,澳洲央行有可能把利率下调至1.75%左右,一旦利率下调,澳元肯定要下跌。
但预计又显示,在随后的2017年年初时,利率又将上调到1.9%左右。
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