墨尔本留学移民 澳大利亚经济下滑“传染” 十年移民趋势逆转
以中国为首的新兴市场需求增长和大宗商品繁荣曾经带动澳大利亚经济发展,过去十年创造了大量移民流入澳大利亚的高潮。如今因大宗商品价格集体走低和国内经济下滑,澳大利亚的人口增长放缓,反过来又影响经济复苏的前景,威胁着澳大利亚房产泡沫。
英国《金融时报》报道援引澳大利亚官方数据称,去年澳大利亚净增加国外移民较2013年减少15%至18.4万人,移民增长进一步放缓,2013年已减少8%至21.62万人。同时,澳大利亚的生育率也在下降,去年为1.4%,只有六年前的一半多。2008年生育率达到澳大利亚现代史上最高的2.2%。
场需求增长和大宗商品繁荣曾经带动澳大利亚经济发展,过去十年创造了大量移民流入澳大利亚的高潮。如今因大宗商品价格集体走低和国内经济下滑,澳大利亚的人口增长放缓,反过来又影响经济复苏的前景,威胁着澳大利亚房产泡沫。
英国《金融时报》报道援引澳大利亚官方数据称,去年澳大利亚净增加国外移民较2013年减少15%至18.4万人,移民增长进一步放缓,2013年已减少8%至21.62万人。同时,澳大利亚的生育率也在下降,去年为1.4%,只有六年前的一半多。2008年生育率达到澳大利亚现代史上最高的2.2%。
本周澳大利亚公布的7月失业率由6月的6.1%升至6.3%,当月80万失业人数创1994年以来新高。而国内薪资增长还在20年来低谷,加上澳元贬值,澳大利亚对国外技工的吸引力进一步减弱。麦格理经济研究主管James McIntyre指出,人口减少最多的州是昆士兰和西澳大利亚这类资源丰富的州。
野村分析师Andrew Ticehurst认为,净增加移民人数下滑是澳大利亚国内经济放缓的体现,它又会拖累经济增长,形成恶性循环。若此趋势持续,澳大利亚GDP年增长率可能下降0.25到0.5个百分点。
新增移民人数和国内人口增长双降已经引起澳大利亚央行——澳大利亚联储关注。上月澳大利亚联储主席Glenn Stevens称,考虑到这方面的变化,可能不得不调整潜在经济增长的预期,
本周澳大利亚联储宣布维持2%的利率不变,符合预期。这是该央行连续第三个月保持现有货币政策不变,其分别于今年1月和5月出乎市场意料降息。该央行在本周的声明中提到,货币宽松政策面临两大挑战:澳元贬值和国内房价、特别是悉尼房价持续大涨。
今日澳大利亚联储又表示,未来18个月失业率几乎不会有何变动,暗示失业率已经见底。该央行还在今日发布的声明中提到全球经济增长前景的风险,认为主要有些集中于中国经济下行。声明认为,中国的经济增长趋势和宏观经济政策、及其对大宗商品需求的影响都还不明朗。近来A股动荡和中国政府救市都让中国经济前景更不明朗。
除了移民问题,上述《金融时报》报道还援引McIntyre评论,提到另一种担忧:人口增长放缓意味着新住宅的需求减少。这意味着,以上澳大利亚联储提到的房价上涨将不可持续。
本周华尔街见闻文章提到,截止今年7月,悉尼房价同比上涨了18.4%,创2002年年底以来最大涨幅。墨尔本的房价涨幅也高达11.5%,涨幅创历史新高。这可能与澳大利亚联储今年两次降息有关。房价飙升已经让银行业担忧,开始收紧房贷。
澳大利亚经济本已需要其他领域提振增长,这种时候人口增长减慢、新移民减少又让形势雪上加霜,对澳大利亚经济摆脱中国经济下滑影响毫无帮助。
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